November 5, 2009

Getting Out of This Mess

I heard for most of my life that the Great Depression ended because of the US involvement in World War II, and that it was the manufacturing jobs that directly lifted the nation out of the depression. This notion made sense to me and I accepted it without much inspection. The idea, however, brings little comfort as the US straggles through the current recession when one realizes that the US is already in a war, and that fact alone is not enough to pull the country out of the economic doldrums. So it was refreshing to read that Niall Ferguson, (in his brilliant, “The Ascent of Money”) says that “American business has always rebounded from financial crises through technical innovation –RCA, Dupont and IBM after the Great Depression; Microsoft and Apple in the 1970’s” www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/ While I’ve never heard that particular theory before, it is certainly a breath of fresh air, or at least a straw that one can eagerly grasp. Now if only the United States can find something to manufacture……


By Myron Gushlak

September 10, 2009

The Big Show

Forget about the New York Yankees or the imminent opening of the NFL season. The most intriguing game in town is the current battle in the United States Congress over health care. What do you like in your sports entertainment? A contest too close to call? The unexpected rise of an underdog? Last minute heroics? Passion? This fight has all that and more.


Last night I watched President Obama’s speech to congress and it didn’t take long to see the passion evoked by the issue. (www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/09/obama.speech/index.html)


Of course, it helps that I am a Canadian and don’t have to necessarily live and die with the results, no pun intended. I can watch the drama safely form the sidelines. This is life and death stuff. Both sides have put forth massive amounts of money intent on representing (or mis-representing as the case may be) the central issues of their cause. Could it be any different? Medical care represents 12% of the GDP of the United States. We’re talking about a massive amount of money at stake here.


South Carolina Representative Joe Wilson’s “You lie!” catcall at the President reflected the passion if not the accuracy of both sides of the aisle.


Forget about who wins or loses. The drama alone is worth the price of a ticket. And this show is free!


By Myron Gushlak

July 7, 2009

Gasification

I was reading a couple of weeks ago about a guy in Connecticut, Dave Nichols, who runs his pick-up truck by burning wood and household garbage instead of gasoline. The procedure uses a process called “gasification” which has apparently been around since the 1800’s. The burn is much cleaner than the normal combustion engine. The article was fascinating, (www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g56LiyLVfPuVRnvHAmq)

Nichols has formed his own company (www.21stcenturymotorworks.com) although he has yet to get a patent on his current project. This type of thing is not unprecedented. People have used and are using gasification to heat buildings throughout the country on a small scale. There’s a video on U-Tube that shows a modified Honda Accord that uses a similar technology, but what I liked best about Nichols’ was his explanation of his own invention. “It’s a complicated version of easy,” he said.


I don’t know about you, but with all the reliance on government and stimulus packages and tax incentives, it’s refreshing to see some good old fashioned ingenuity getting a moment in the spotlight.


By Myron Gushlak

June 17, 2009

The Glass Half Full

“Finance,” according to Robert Sarnoff, “is the act of passing currency from hand to hand until it disappears.” Sarnoff’s words resonate strongly today among the world’s investors. If there were a way to measure such things, I’m certain many people would agree with his cynical appraisal of the industry at large. Many believe that the epidemic outbreak of scams and fraudulent acts that have been discovered over the past year are merely the norm of business activity. Or worse, that people like Madoff and Stanford represent only the unfortunate who were unlucky enough (or sloppy enough) to get caught. The pre-occupation with scams, particularly in the tabloid news venues has cast a distorting light on finance and business. But frauds and scams are really only a very small part of the whole.


In baseball, it is said that the perfect player trade is one where both teams feel they got the better player in return for their own player who they obviously viewed as expendable. And so it is in business. The perfect deal is the one where both parties are convinced that their acumen has gotten them the better deal. Fraud can be claimed, therefore, by any party who discovers further down the road that he, in fact, did not get the better deal after all. A good friend of mine bought a fair amount of GM stock last week for seventy-nine cents a share. This week it traded at $1.44. Did the party who sold it at 79cents feel scammed? The conundrum of finance where one man’s ceiling is usually another man’s floor brings to mind the words of one of the great misanthropes of the last century, Ambrose Bierce. “Happiness,” he said, “is the agreeable sensation arising from contemplating the misery of another.”


It is a curious cultural condition we find ourselves in that Bierce’s words resonate so deeply. But this attitude that the big fish eats the smaller fish right on down the line negates one very important tenant of finance. That is, we are all in this together. The current downtown should have made this abundantly clear. Instead, it seems to have created a fascination with scams that inherently assumes the worst- that one man can only succeed at the expense of another. It becomes almost a religious argument. Does a high tide raise all boats, or can one succeed only at the expense of another.


By Myron Gushlak

May 20, 2009

Beam Me Up

You may have read that recently that Picard is continuing to fight the good fight for recent victims. It’s been in all the papers. I don’t mean Jean Luc Picard, the Star Trek captain played by British actor Patrick Stewart. I’m talking about Irving Picard, the court appointed trustee who has the unenviable task of trying to recover monies for the victims of Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme- the scam that will ultimately make Madoff the King of All Scams if it hasn’t already.

But in a curious decision this week, investors who cashed out before Madoff’s $65 billion dollar scam was discovered, were told they may have to return what they took out (www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/04/25/2009-04-25) In recent weeks, according to the article, the Federal Bankruptcy Court trustee in charge of hunting down Madoff’s assets sent out 223 letters to investors seeking the return of as much as $735 million. The so-called "clawback" could impact investors who cashed out as long as six years before the collapse. "These amounts were paid to you at the expense of other customers while [Madoff's firm] was insolvent," read a letter to an investor from Trustee Irving Picard.

Can you imagine? Theoretically, the investor who received a check from Madoff in June of 2004, long before there was a hint of a scam, will have to pony up said check. I assume that he in return will dun the BMW dealer who took a portion of that ill-gotten money as payment for a car. The car dealer will dun the house painter who received a portion of these illegal funds in exchange for a coat of paint on the dealer’s residence. The house painter will attempt to get a portion of that money back from his wife’s father who used it to but a couple of tickets for a Mets game. And on and on. Until Hi ho the dairy-o, the cheese stands alone.

Once again, reality is far stranger than fiction. Nothing that Jean Luc Picard had to deal with on any planet in any galaxy, could have prepared him for the intricacies of this real life Pandora’s box. “The effect of these letters is to scare the living daylights out of people who have already been victimized once by Bernard Madoff," said lawyer Jonathan Landers, who represents several victims.
Yeah, no kidding.

By Myron Gushlak

April 7, 2009

Madoff Scam Revisited

To paraphrase Oscar Levant, when it comes to Bernard Madoff,

“the line between genius and insanity has been erased.”
The value of discovered assets owned by Bernard Madoff reached one billion dollars. (www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,510281,00.html). A $75 million dollar account found in Gibraltar has pushed the total to this dubious milestone. A billion is a number that used to command attention, but with the total cost of his Ponzi scheme estimated at anywhere from twenty to sixty billion, it barely raises an eyebrow.


Madoff is a fascinating story, and shows no signs of becoming less so. The questions about how he did what he did are only partially legal questions. There is a sense of awe inherent in the inquisitiveness of the average person. How did he do it? People want details. Gory details, minuscule antidotal details. Anything. Americans have always had a soft spot for the criminal mind. John Dillinger was a hero during the Great Depression as he stole and murdered his way through rural America. More people today know his name than any other figure of the 1930’s with the possible exception of Franklin Roosevelt. “The Godfather” is the favorite film of more American men than any movie in the past hundred years, and only a few were rooting against the Marlon Brando lead character. People will flock to a movie about a great scam. Leonardo DeCaprio’s “Catch Me if You Can” is the most recent film that comes to mind, but there is no shortage. Will there be movies based on Madoff’s life, both fictional and bio-pics? I’m certain they’re already begun. If it is possible to get enough of this story, than certainly we are nowhere near that point.


In this case, the interest in the scam itself is enhanced by the innate curiosity about the wealthy. What you have here is a perfect storm of a scam and a peek into the private lives of the rich- a lethal American combination. And I don’t just mean Madoff’s life. His yachts and various homes around the globe are interesting, but not more interesting than the peek into the lives of his victims. Surely I am not the only one who read the e-mails entered as evidence in Madoff’s trial by some of his victims (as well as others who just wanted their opinions registered.) It is a train wreck. Each one elicits sympathy as we trip over ourselves to read the next. Captivating and mesmerizing. Bubble gum for the eyes and ears. And for the fans of this sort of thing, rest assured, the end is nowhere in sight.


By Myron Gushlak

February 19, 2009

Scam of the Week

Everyone thought that comedy would fall into a recession after the Bush presidency ended. Not so fast you doomsayers of humor. Enter the era of the exposed scam. It seems that every few weeks a new scam is uncovered. Todays entry is Allen Stanford whom the SEC has seen fit to pin more allegations on than a donkey’s cartoon butt at an eight year old’s birthday party. Those allegations against Mr. Stanford and his bank, the Stanford International Bank, include, but are not limited to, attempting to drain $178 million in the past two weeks alone and selling 8 billion pounds sterling in certificates of deposit claiming unrealistically high rates of return. It is also alleged that the Stanford Group sold 1 billion of a proprietary mutual fund by

"using materially false and misleading historical performance data."

www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us


The nefarious doings started to unravel when the attorney cooperating with the SEC investigation disaffirmed everything he had told authorities up to that point. www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid. This disaffirmation was a bit of a red flag to the investigators who did not, apparently, mis-underestimate the ramifications of such a denial.

But wait, it gets better. Apparently Mr.Stanford was on the long list of people and organizations swindled by Bernard Madoff; this according to the SEC, though Stanford denies it. The writers for Letterman, Leno, Mahr and all the others are scrambling as I write this. Open your window; you can almost hear the sound of pens scratching off in the distance.

"So, Bernie Madoff and Allen Stanford walk into a bar…."

I would pay good hard-earned money to see a transcript of the conversation between the two of them. Stanford bought some of what Madoff was peddling. Did Madoff invest in any of the SIB offerings? Isnt this kind of like when you hold a mirror up to a mirror? We have uncovered a new Zen meditation point for the 21st century. If a swindler swindles a swindler, is it really a scam at all? I wonder if they liked each other on a personal level, or if one thought the other particularly honest or trustworthy. I wonder if they had plans to meet again socially. H.L. Mencken said

“never overestimate the decency of the human race.”
He had no idea how his words would just keep on resonating.


By Myron Gushlak

January 30, 2009

Scams

The down time at Blue Water Partners (http://bluewater.ky/) is always interesting. I dont think that would be too surprising to many people. When men work in high pressure jobs, handling large sums of money, things tend to get a little unpredictable during the breaks. Bond traders are notorious for this sort of behavior. A bond trader will work at warp speeds for hours at a time manning several telephone lines and computer screens simultaneously, and then bam, everything stops, and traders find themselves staring at one another in a minor daze. I knew of one bond trader in New York who caught mice and threw them out the window after making little parachutes for them during the down time. Things get weird. Conversations are often unrepeatable.


The talk the other day centered around the Bernard Madoff scam. It’s hard not to talk about Madoff, or made-off as Ive heard him called recently, as in he made-off with all the money. We started by talking about other scams, the original pyramid scheme of Charles Ponzi in the 1920s to the Nigerian money laundering scheme that still surfaces every now and again. Madoff seems to have the biggest scam to date, at least in terms of dollars. The Albanian pyramid scheme of 1997 was the hands down biggest in terms of the numbers of people involved. It was estimated that two-thirds of that countrys entire population and government were caught up in it. Riots ensued when the whole thing collapsed, and the country still hasnt fully recovered. But in terms of dollars, Madoff seems to have won a rather dubious prize.


Which led to the main topic of discussion – Where is the money?


If the totals that are being thrown around in the newspapers are remotely accurate, Madoff took hundreds of millions, and possibly billions of dollars. Think about that. In these days of billion dollar buyouts numbers get thrown around and lose their meaning. But he may have taken billions of dollars. A million dollars is a lot of money. If you spent a dollar a day for a million days you would have had to begin in the fifth century BC to be broke today. (without interest, of course.)


It was the esteemed consensus of BWP that a single man cannot spend that much money in his lifetime, never mind the forty or fifty years Madoff may have been at it. There just isnt enough time in the day. It would take a foundation with many employees to spend at a fast enough rate. Its a funny idea, not being able to spend a fixed amount of money, a Brewsters Millions sort of fantasy, but think about it. If you stole one billion dollars, you would have to spend ten million dollars a day to make it disappear in a couple of decades. Now think about how much work it would be to spend ten million dollars a day every day for a couple of decades. If you gave it away in huge allotments. far too much attention would be drawn to you. Did he buy an estate a day for a year? A roomful of Picassos? Where are they? What a dilemma! So the question remains, where is the money?


I was reminded of a story I read many years ago. A man in France stole what is the equivalent to one million dollars in quarters. Do you know how much space you need to store a million dollars in quarters? What are you going to do with them? Sell them each for a nickel to neighborhood children? Go to quarter casino machines every day for eight hours? You would draw so much attention to yourself that you would be caught in weeks, which leads me to the what the police chief in charge of the case was quoted as saying,

Stealing this much money is its own punishment.

By Myron Gushlak

January 23, 2009

Sovereign Wealth, Again.

I have been writing about sovereign wealth funds on and off for months. I warned about the possible political ramifications of having foreign countries heavily invested in the United States and the political leverage that might lead to. I quoted a New York Times story about the reluctance of the US to press China too hard during the Olympic buildup period for fear of antagonizing a friendly investor. Larry Summers, (who was not the Secretary of the Treasury at the time) shared my concerns, or I should say, I shared his, and he said months before he was to become part of this new administration’s cabinet, that he would keep a watchful eye on that particular situation. (www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/27/obamas-treasury-secretary_n_138195.html)


It is beyond ironic to me the way things are turning out. The current bailout has a possible price tag of nearly one trillion dollars. (www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21draftcnd.html) This at a time when national deficit in the United States is currently ten percent of the GNP. Very little is being said about where that money is going to come from. There is a constant footnote to anything TARP (bailout) related that the cost would be passed on to the American taxpayer. That is all well and good for the long term, but what about the short term? It seems that the US is counting heavily on foreign investments to fund a lot of this recovery money.


But how likely is this to happen? Much was made of China’s investment in Morgan Stanley in December, 2007. (www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/19/business/morgan.php) I am curious to know how much that investment is currently worth to China. I am fairly certain that it is worth at least one third less than what was originally invested. How eager will China be to return to the US for further investment? The situation may be worse in the oil producing countries. Sovereign wealth fund investment in the US by the United Arab Emirates is well into the tens of billions of dollars. With the price of oil under fifty dollars a barrel, (down from a high of nearly $150 a barrel in July, 2008) how eager are those countries to invest in the US? And if they still have full confidence in the strength of the US dollar, where will they get the money to invest?


This is an intriguing turn of events. The United States has gone form a cautionary

be careful of foreign investors
to an increasingly more desperate,
where are the foreign investments?
in one short year. George Washington in his farewell address to the nation warned that a
passionate attachment of one nation for another produces a variety of evils.
http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/washing.asp . Before the United States relies too heavily on the opinion of the specialists on this matter, I would like to remind them of George Bernard Shaw’s caution that
If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.
The current financial crisis is becoming more complicated than a Russian novel, and every bit as intriguing.

By Myron Gushlak

January 17, 2009

History

There is a sense of anticipation this week as the final days of the Bush presidency are spent. I dont remember in my lifetime such an urgency for change. There is a distinct feeling of being in the midst of history. Without a doubt the combination of the impending Obama inauguration and equally historic financial crisis has marked these days for inclusion in future history books. It is a peculiar sensation, the notion that one is living through history. Of course, one always is, but the realization comes and goes. One gets the sense in these early days of 2009 that the whole world is watching.


I sense an optimism that contradicts the woeful facts of the current financial collapse. I particularly enjoyed the op-ed piece in the New York Times today by Roger Cohen (www.nytimes.com/2009/01/15/opinion/15cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion) not just for what was said, but for Mr. Cohens ability to capture this curious contradiction. There is more of a sense of a collective rolling up of sleeves preparing for a tough job ahead, than

a sky is falling panic
. We are leaving a president who failed to utter a single rallying phrase in eight years, even in the wake of 9/11, to welcome a president who has demonstrated an ability to inspire and motivate with words. The contrast could not be more starkly drawn. It turns out that, sadly, we did not mis-underestimate the current president. Despite his plea at his farewell address, there is no trophy for making “the tough decisions,” particularly when an overwhelming volume of first hand testimony show his unwillingness to reconsider a decision once it was made.


It was Gore Vidal who said,

On the whole history tends to be rather poor fiction-except at its best.
These days make for great fiction. The characters have been drawn almost as caricatures- the unimaginative leader, unwilling or unable to adapt to changes; his Machiavellian sidekick secretly attempting to control the workings of the court, and the unlikely rise of a new voice, redefining the way things are done as he goes, mobilizing the villagers on his quest for justice and competency. It is grand theatre that surrounds us. I cant wait to see how it all turns out.


By Myron Gushlak